Each October, the United States government announces the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security, determining the increase that beneficiaries will receive beginning in January. The decision relies on inflation data from July through September, based specifically on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W). This year, a partial federal shutdown threatens to delay both the release of that data and the official COLA announcement.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the September CPI figure on October 15, a crucial component in the COLA formula. However, in the event of a shutdown, that release could face delays. Historical precedent shows the risk is real; during the 2013 shutdown, the COLA announcement was postponed until October 30.

If the CPI figure is delayed, the Social Security Administration may need to implement contingency measures. Even if the government resumes operations quickly, processing the data could take additional time. For millions of retirees who depend on Social Security, this means uncertainty regarding how much their monthly checks will increase in 2026.

How Big Could the Increase Be?

Analysts have been closely monitoring inflation trends to estimate the likely increase. Based on current figures, most projections place the 2026 COLA between 2.7% and 2.8%.

The Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit advocacy organization, has projected a 2.7% rise. Independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson estimates a slightly higher figure at 2.8%.

If the adjustment reaches 2.8%, the average Social Security recipient could see an increase of approximately $54.70 per month. Under the Senior Citizens League’s 2.7% estimate, the monthly rise would be about $54.

For context, the 2025 COLA was 2.5%, and over the last two decades, annual adjustments have averaged about 2.6 percent.

Even with a moderate increase, many retirees may still struggle to keep pace with rising living expenses. Essential costs such as healthcare, housing, and utilities often climb faster than the CPI-W index used to calculate COLA. As a result, even when benefits rise, their purchasing power can still weaken over time.

Medicare Part B Could Reduce the Gains

Another concern lies in the cost of Medicare Part B, which most Social Security recipients pay directly from their benefits. If the Part B premium increases significantly, it could reduce much of the benefit gained through the COLA.

Trustees currently estimate that the 2026 Medicare Part B premium could rise by 11.6%, or $21.50, moving from $185 to $206.50 per month. This increase means that a $54 COLA adjustment could effectively drop to $32 or less once the premium deduction is applied. In some cases, the gain could be minimal.

However, the “hold harmless” rule ensures that beneficiaries do not receive less than their current benefit amount, preventing net reductions even if premiums climb.

Medicare premiums are usually announced in November, but this year’s federal shutdown could delay that timeline as well, adding another layer of uncertainty for beneficiaries.

What to Watch Next

1. Timing of CPI data release: If the Bureau of Labor Statistics cannot publish September inflation figures by mid-October, the COLA announcement will likely be postponed.
   
   
2. Final COLA decision: Analysts currently expect an increase between 2.7 and 2.8 percent, though the figure may change once all data becomes available.
   
   
3. Medicare Part B premium: A sharp increase could offset much of the benefit adjustment for retirees.
   
   
4. Net benefit impact: Updated benefit statements in November and December will provide a clearer picture of how much recipients will actually gain.

For millions of Americans who rely on Social Security, the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment remains uncertain. The ongoing government shutdown threatens to delay crucial inflation data and related decisions. Even if the COLA is confirmed at 2.7 or 2.8%, rising Medicare premiums and living costs could limit how far that increase truly goes.